4
1 · Demand (trailing 8 wks, 4-day windows starting Sat)
Average 4-day demand34.9 btl
Std dev9.1 btl
Windows observed8
Sellouts in last 8 wks8 of 56 days → demand uncensored ×1.27
5
2 · Service level
Stockout : waste ratio3 : 1
Target percentile p = ratio/(ratio+1)75%
Implied z (target − mean)/sd0.67
target4d = mean + z · sd = 34.9 + 0.67 · 9.1 = 41 btl
target4d+buffer (also folds typical pre-order cleanses) = 41.7 btl
6
3 · Known orders layered in
Booked cleanse pre-orders (in window)0 btl
Standing wholesale0 btl
One-off wholesale / catering0 btl
7
4 · Target bottles
target = standing + one-off + GREATEST( target4d+buffer , target4d + booked pre-orders )
= 0 + 0 + GREATEST( 41.7 , 41 )
= 0 + 0 + 41.7
Target = 41.7 bottles
8
5 · Batches to make
Yield (bottles per batch)14.4 btl
raw = target / yield = 41.7 / 14.4 = 2.89 batches
round UP to nearest 0.3-batch increment →
Batch size = 3 batches → produces 43.3 bottles
bottles produced = batch size × yield = 3 × 14.4
9
6 · Ingredients for this batch (3 batches)
| Ingredient | oz / batch | oz needed | pack oz | packs |
| Apple Fuji X-fancy Fresh | 306.9 | 920.7 | 640 | 2 |
| Kale Clean Ready To Use | 49.4 | 148.2 | 160 | 1 |
| Spinach Clipped Fresh | 16 | 48 | 160 | 1 |
| Parsley Cln/wash Fresh Herb | 9 | 27 | 16 | 2 |
| Ginger Fresh (root) | 7.1 | 21.2 | 480 | 1 |
Ginger shows whole-root oz (recipe juice oz ÷ 0.65). Packs = oz needed ÷ pack size, rounded up.